Following a period that has been characterised by mostly fair and notably warm weather, the upcoming week is expected to provide a mix of synoptic conditions. Alternating ridges and troughs during the first half of the week will result in changeable, but not extreme weather in terms of waves and wind. A local thunderstorm is possible in this period however. Low pressure becomes dominant by the weekend and remains in place in the beginning of next week, although the forecast uncertainty increases at that stage.
Currently, a low pressure area over the Norwegian Sea extends a trough over the southeastern half of the North Sea. In the meantime, the Azores High extends a ridge over the northern North Sea. The trough develops into a weak low on Wednesday, shifting further E over the North Sea and into Scandinavia later that day. Associated frontal troughs track E over the North Sea on Wednesday and Thursday morning. In the southern North Sea, these troughs may be accompanied with local thunderstorms, especially nearshore. Despite the low pressure influence, no extreme conditions are expected, with maximum wind speeds and wave heights found in the eastern areas, still staying below 30 kts and 3m (Figure 1).
From late Thursday morning onwards, the ridge of the Azores high gains more influence over the North Sea, by gradually expanding southward and bringing more calm conditions to the area. With maximum wind speeds of 20 kts and wave heights below 2m over the entire area, this period will likely feature the calmest conditions of the week. The conditions near Denmark are expected to become somewhat unsettled, with winds up to 35 kts and waves reaching 3m.
This improvement is rather short-lived however, as low pressure conditions take over again in the course of Friday. By then, a new Atlantic low pressure system is expected just south of Iceland, with frontal troughs affecting large parts of the UK and the northern half of the North Sea. The low pressure area then moves E into the northern North Sea on Saturday, and via the central North Sea into southern Norway by Sunday. Frontal troughs remain lingering over the area during the weekend. The roughest conditions are foreseen for the central and northern North Sea, where wind speeds will amount 30 kts and wave heights 3m.
After the weekend, low pressure conditions are expected to persist over the North Sea at first. Current projections suggest a renewed development of an Azores high ridge over the area in the first half of next week, but the timing remains uncertain. As the confidence in the forecasts decreases beyond the weekend, and to stay informed about the latest weather developments, including the potential for thunderstorms this week, we recommend consulting the latest weather reports.
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