Welcome to the Weekly Weather Update – your guide to the world’s oceans and seas. Each week, we highlight key marine weather patterns and analyse unusual or significant weather events. From calm spells under high pressure to tropical cyclones forming in equatorial waters, and from jet streams steering oceanic storms to anomalies in sea-surface temperature that shape global climate patterns. Here’s what this week’s weather has in store.
A high-pressure area situated over Turkey tracks toward the southeast, while a new high simultaneously builds over northwestern Russia and northern Scandinavia. This high-pressure system features a strong ridge extending across the northern North Sea and the Norwegian Sea. Meanwhile, a complex low-pressure system lingers over the northern Atlantic, gradually tracking south-eastward as the week progresses.
In between those two pressure systems an easterly to southeasterly flow is present. This will result in persistent, strong winds over the central and northern North Sea, particularly on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. In the corridor stretching from the southwestern coast of Norway to the Shetland Islands, gale-force winds (Force 8) are expected, with gusts frequently reaching or slightly exceeding 50 knots. During this period, the significant wave height (Hs) will often range between 5 and 7 meters (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Active weather is forecasted over the middle and northern half of the North Sea on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
Conditions will be notably calmer further north, where the mountains along the Norwegian west coast provide significant protection. To the south, the pressure gradient will gradually weaken across the North Sea, leading to a steady decrease in both wind speeds and wave heights.
A low-pressure area over North Africa will fill and weaken over the coming days. A strong southeasterly wind has been prevailing, particularly over the central Mediterranean, but while the wind is set to decrease rapidly in strength, heavy rainfall will persist, especially around Sicily. On the eastern side of the island, localized rainfall totals could exceed 300 to 400 mm through Wednesday evening.
The combination of these winds and the intense precipitation may cause disruptions, particularly for operations in and around the ports on Sicily's east coast. Conditions are expected to improve starting Thursday.
The complex low-pressure system currently spinning over the Atlantic Ocean will track south-eastward later this week. A secondary low is expected to reach the far western coast of France on Friday morning. South of this low, gale-force winds (Force 8) are anticipated over the Bay of Biscay. Additionally, localized gusts of 60 knots may occur, and further offshore, significant wave heights (Hs) will briefly reach 10 meters. Along the entire western and southwestern coast of France, wave heights of 5 to 7 meters are likely on Friday.
Conditions will temporarily settle starting Saturday, although a new disturbance is already lining up over the Atlantic. At this stage, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the track and impact of this next system.
It will be an active weather week over most European waters. Especially over the northern North Sea and the Bay of Biscay. The most active weather in these areas will occur from Wednesday onwards.
Please consult the latest weather forecasts for the most up-to-date information and stay safe!
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