Welcome to the Weekly Weather Update – your guide to the world’s oceans and seas. Each week, we highlight key marine weather patterns and analyse unusual or significant weather events. From calm spells under high pressure to tropical cyclones forming in equatorial waters, and from jet streams steering oceanic storms to anomalies in sea-surface temperature that shape global climate patterns. Here’s what this week’s weather has in store.
The northern Atlantic is expected to be very active in the coming week. Persistent low pressure will bring unsettled, stormy and even extreme weather conditions. A broad low southeast of Greenland on Wednesday will slowly move southeast over the Atlantic. Although the low gradually weakens as it approaches Ireland, it will still cause unsettled conditions west of the country.
Winds of 30–35 knots are expected west of Ireland on Wednesday and Thursday. Significant wave heights are predicted to reach 4.5–5 meters on Wednesday, and as additional swell arrives on Thursday, waves may increase to 6–6.5 meters just west of Ireland.
In the far open ocean, winds could reach 45–50 knots on Wednesday. As the low gradually fills, winds are expected to decrease to 35–40 knots on Thursday. Wave heights far offshore are forecast to reach up to 11-11.5 meters on Wednesday, gradually subsiding to 9–10 meters on Thursday.
On Friday, conditions offshore of Ireland remain unsettled. Although winds decrease as the previously mentioned low passes the area, residual swell will keep wave heights high, reaching 6.5–7 meters offshore.
On Saturday, weather temporarily improves west of the UK. However, a new complex low strengthens over the far northern Atlantic. An associated frontal trough may bring winds of 30–35 knots on Sunday, with values decreasing afterward. Waves are also expected to increase, reaching 3–3.5 meters on Sunday.
Even though winds ease later, swell arriving from the northern Atlantic is likely to generate high waves of 4.5–5.5 meters west of Ireland at the beginning of next week.
As low pressure continues to dominate the northern Atlantic, it will also influence the weather over the North Sea during the coming week. At the same time, high pressure remains near the Azores.
On Wednesday, an associated ridge moves across the North Sea, bringing relatively calm conditions over most areas. Only the northern parts are expected to experience winds of 20–25 knots, with wave heights of 2.5–3.5 meters.
By the end of the day, the ridge shifts eastward and is followed by a trough. As a result, the pressure gradient tightens, leading to more unsettled conditions on Thursday. Winds across large parts of the North Sea are expected to increase to 20–30 knots, reaching 35–40 knots in the northernmost areas and along the southern Norwegian coast. Wave heights are forecast to rise to 1.5–3.0 meters in most areas and up to 3.5–5.0 meters in the north.
At the same time, a secondary low is expected to develop northwest of France on Thursday. It will move northeastward, passing England later in the day and crossing the western North Sea on Friday. The passage of this low will not only introduce local uncertainties but will also bring unsettled weather across the entire region throughout the day.
Nearshore areas are generally expected to experience winds of no more than 25–30 knots, with some local exceptions. Offshore however, especially over the western, central and northern to northeastern parts of the North Sea, winds may increase to 35–50 knots (see Figure 1).
Significant wave heights are forecast to remain below 2 meters in nearshore regions, while higher waves offshore are expected to reach 2.5–4 meters and may locally approach 5-6 meters in the central northernmost areas.
While these developments take place over the North Sea, a broad ridge builds over western Russia. During the weekend, this ridge extends westward, bringing calmer conditions to the North Sea on Saturday and Sunday. However, the waves may still increase up to 3.5-4 meters in the northern regions.
Conditions are generally expected to improve slightly on Monday and Tuesday; however, unsettled weather will likely persist over the northern parts of the North Sea. It is therefore advised to continue monitoring weather forecasts for the most up-to-date information.
Persistent low pressure will bring severe weather west of Ireland for most of the week. The same low pressure will also dominate the weather over the North Sea, with occasional ridges moving into the region. This will result in generally unsettled conditions across much of the area, particularly in the northern parts.
Please consult the latest weather forecasts for the most current information and stay safe!
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