Welcome to the Weekly Weather Update – your guide to the world’s oceans and seas. Each week, we highlight key marine weather patterns and analyse unusual or significant weather events. From calm spells under high pressure to tropical cyclones forming in equatorial waters, and from jet streams steering oceanic storms to anomalies in sea-surface temperature that shape global climate patterns. Here’s what this week’s weather has in store.
After a full week of unsettled autumnal weather over the North Sea, calmer conditions return under the influence of high pressure. Low pressure lingers over the Atlantic and Italy in the meantime.
High pressure over the UK moves slowly eastwards in the coming days, reaching southern Sweden by Thursday before settling over the Baltic states during the weekend. An associated ridge extends across the North Sea, bringing fair conditions to much of the region. Frontal troughs linked to Atlantic low pressure are expected to approach the North Sea during the weekend, but the influence of high pressure remains strong, likely weakening the troughs as they move eastwards.
The week begins with moderate winds and significant wave heights easing to around 1.0 meter in many areas. As the days progress, winds strengthen around the edges of high pressure, reaching strong force (20 – 25 knots). By the end of the week, winds also increase over the central North Sea, while calmer conditions develop over the southern North Sea. In the northern North Sea, approaching frontal troughs from the west will bring winds rising to 25–30 knots and significant wave heights of 3–4 meters by Saturday.
On the other side of the world, typhoon season is in full swing, bringing violent conditions over the northern South China Sea. Ragasa became the first super typhoon of the 2025 Northwest Pacific typhoon season, earning its ‘super’ status last Sunday after a rapid intensification over the Philippine Sea. The system eventually produced sustained wind speeds of around 145 knots (268 km/h), with gusts up to 175 knots (324 km/h).
Ragasa lost its ‘super’ status on Monday and is expected to weaken further in the coming days, while moving W towards southern China and northern Vietnam. Nevertheless, it remains a violent typhoon, bringing dangerous conditions over both land and sea. Winds near the eye of the storm are still forecast to exceed 100 knots when it passes south of Hong Kong in the night to Wednesday. The accompanying significant wave heights still reach up to around 12 meters, with waves of 6 - 0 meters expected within the 50 – 250 km radius from the eye.
Ragasa is expected to downgrade to a tropical storm as it makes landfall over northern Vietnam on Thursday. In addition to strong wind and waves, torrential rainfall and increased thunderstorm activity will also affect marine operations.
Another typhoon, Neoguri, is located over the Northwest Pacific, well southeast of Japan. Although a strong system, it has not reached ‘super typhoon’ status. It is expected to track gradually northwards, weakening to a tropical storm by Thursday.
While typhoon season appears to be at its peak, the hurricane season in the Atlantic basin has remained fairly quiet over the past weeks. However, the season is not yet over. Statistically, its peak occurs on 10 September, with most activity between mid-August and mid-October. Although, the season officially runs until 30 November.
Major hurricane Gabrielle (Category 4) is currently active northeast of Bermuda and is expected to track east to northeast over the coming days, reaching the Azores by the end of the week. Several other areas of increased convective activity well east of the Caribbean are being monitored and may develop into tropical storms or hurricanes in the coming days or weeks. It is therefore likely that a more active period lies ahead, similar to last year’s hurricane season, when things started to heat up by the end of September.
While the weather in north-west Europe is relatively calm this week, conditions are heating up in the tropical regions of the Pacific and the Atlantic. Extreme weather events, such as super typhoon Ragasa, highlight the importance of detailed weather forecasts to help prevent and mitigate unnecessary risks. For an offshore forecast tailored specifically to your location, please contact us!
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