Welcome to the Weekly Weather Update – your guide to the world’s oceans and seas. Each week, we highlight key marine weather patterns and analyse unusual or significant weather events. From calm spells under high pressure to tropical cyclones forming in equatorial waters, and from jet streams steering oceanic storms to anomalies in sea-surface temperature that shape global climate patterns. Here’s what this week’s weather has in store.
This week, weak high pressure takes hold over the North Sea. On Tuesday, a high-pressure system over southeastern Europe will shift eastward and is expected to dissipate by Wednesday. However, a ridge of high pressure will remain and extend across most of mainland Europe and parts of the North Sea throughout the week.
Meanwhile, low pressure will persist over the northern Atlantic. A secondary low, located well west of the Bay of Biscay, will move northeast and is expected to dissipate near Ireland on Thursday. Following this, a new low will develop west of Ireland later that day. It will move slowly east-northeast and is expected to weaken west of Scotland over the weekend.
On Tuesday, a relatively strong pressure gradient will be present over the North Sea, leading to slightly unsettled weather. Winds are expected to reach 20–35 knots throughout the day. Wave heights will generally range from 2 to 3.5 meters, with slightly higher waves in northern areas. However, the significant wave height is expected to remain below 4 meters.
Closer to the coast, conditions will be calmer, with wave heights below 2 meters.
From Wednesday onward, calmer weather will settle over the North Sea. Winds are expected to remain generally below 20 knots, with wave heights staying under 2 meters.
However, the northernmost areas may still experience some unsettled conditions. In those regions, southerly to southeasterly winds funneling along the Norwegian coast could reach 25–30 knots, with waves building up to 2.5–3 meters (see Figure 1).
Overall, the week begins with somewhat unsettled conditions. However, from Wednesday onward, the weather becomes calmer and more favorable for offshore operations. Only the northern North Sea may remain occasionally restless.
Although the typhoon season is nearing its end, significant activity continues in the western Pacific.
On Tuesday, Typhoon Kalmaegi (see Figure 2) moves northwest, passing the Philippines with winds of 70–75 knots. By Wednesday, the system strengthens, with winds reaching 85–90 knots. On Thursday, it intensifies further, with winds up to 100–105 knots, as it approaches the Vietnamese coast.
On Friday, the typhoon makes landfall, weakening to a tropical storm with winds of 35–40 knots. As it moves further inland, it is expected to downgrade to a tropical depression by Saturday.
Meanwhile, a tropical disturbance, 32W is situated well east of the Philippines. The system is expected to strengthen as it moves northwest, reaching a position northeast of Luzon by the end of the week. By that time, it is likely to have intensified enough to reach typhoon status (see Figure 2).
The week begins with somewhat unsettled conditions over the North Sea, but weather improves from Wednesday onward. While the southern and central areas will remain generally calm, the northern parts of the region may still experience occasional unrest.
In the western Pacific, activity remains high despite the typhoon season approaching its end. Stay alert and continue monitoring the latest forecasts.
And most importantly—stay safe!
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