North Sea weather: Calm waters ahead, but watch for Thursday’s shift

A low-pressure system over the Norwegian Sea is moving northeast, with associated frontal troughs potentially affecting the northern North Sea. A secondary low is expected to develop over the UK on Wednesday, moving into the North Sea early Thursday. This system is forecast to move southeast via the German Bight later on Thursday before continuing over Germany and Poland. However, its exact track and development remain uncertain, resulting in medium to low confidence in forecasts for the central and southern North Sea. From Friday onward, high pressure is expected to settle over the southern North Sea, while the northern region will continue to be influenced by Atlantic low-pressure systems moving northeast via Iceland and the Norwegian Sea.

These synoptic developments will result in mostly favorable conditions over the North Sea in the coming week. In the northern North Sea, winds will stay at 25 knots or less until Friday, with significant wave heights decreasing from 3.0–4.0 meters to 2.0–3.0 meters. Over the weekend, winds and waves may increase under the influence of low-pressure systems over the Norwegian Sea, though details remain uncertain.

In the central North Sea, wind speeds are expected to remain below 20 knots, and significant wave heights will stay below 2.0 meters. However, if the low-pressure system strengthens further, wind speeds and wave heights may rise.

If the system takes a more southerly track, the southern North Sea may also be affected, leading to uncertain conditions on Thursday. In general, wind speeds will remain below 20 knots, and significant wave heights will stay below 1.5 meters.