After a week that has been dominated by relatively stable high pressure conditions, the upcoming week promises to provide more changeable weather. A low pressure area affects the region at first, bringing frontal troughs and unsettled weather, possibly with thunderstorms, to the region. The second half of the week appears to be more promising, with a weak ridge temporarily improving conditions. Another low pressure system is projected to impact the North Sea over and beyond the weekend, worsening the conditions over the North Sea again. The uncertainty increases for the latest part of the week.
At the moment, a low pressure area lingers over the United Kingdom, and is expected to move eastward over the North Sea to the Baltic Sea and eastern Europe tomorrow. Frontal troughs associated with the low pressure area affect the entire North Sea, potentially accompanied with local thunderstorms in the southern half of the North Sea. Although the low tracks directly over the North Sea, wind and waves heights are expected to increase only moderately. Projected values for the wind speed amount 20-25 kts, and 1.5-2m for the significant wave height in the southern North Sea (Figure 1). For the central and northern North Sea, wind speed and wave heights stay under 20 kts and 1.5m respectively.
As the low progresses into the Baltic Sea on Thursday, conditions start improving again by then. The easterly parts of the North Sea might still be affected by a trough at first, but a ridge of high pressure, extending from the Azores High, soon takes control. The ridge will bring the calmest weather of the week to the area, and remains present for large parts of Thursday and Friday. The high moves eastward over the area during these days, developing into a weak high pressure area over central Europe on Friday. Waves generally remain below 1m in large parts of the North Sea, and wind speeds stay below 15kts during these days.
In the meantime, a next low pressure area has reached Iceland, shifting to the UK during the weekend. The development and track of the low pressure area remains highly uncertain at the moment, adding to the uncertainty in the forecast for the weekend and thereafter. Some models expect the low to remain lingering over the UK, with associated frontal troughs tracking over the North Sea from the weekend onwards. Other models foresee that the low itself enters the North Sea by the start of next week. In either case, the conditions over the North Sea will become more unsettled, especially in the northern North Sea. Nonetheless, current projections indicate wind speed and wave heights will remain below 25 knots and 2-2.5 m.
Due to the level of uncertainty regarding the track and development of the low pressure area during the weekend, the projections for that period might change in the coming days. To remain informed and updated about the latest weather developments, we highly recommend consulting the latest weather reports.
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