A weak high-pressure system over Southeastern Europe is shifting eastward. At the same time, ex-hurricane Erin, currently northwest of Ireland, will linger in that area through Wednesday. By the weekend, it will move toward the United Kingdom and gradually weaken. In its wake, a new low-pressure system will cross Scotland and then move over the northern North Sea toward the end of the week.
On Tuesday, August 25, a high-pressure system over Southeastern Europe shifts eastward, reaching the Black Sea by Wednesday. It then turns northeast and extends toward southwestern Russia.
At the same time, ex-hurricane Erin is positioned northwest of Ireland. The system lingers there through Wednesday before moving southeast toward the United Kingdom. Erin gradually weakens and is expected to dissipate by late Friday.
Meanwhile, associated frontal troughs will occasionally pass across the North Sea during the week. From Wednesday onward, these troughs bring a risk of thunderstorms throughout the region.
In its wake, another low-pressure system moves east across the northern Atlantic. It is expected to track over Scotland on Sunday, then continue across the northern North Sea on Monday before moving northeast toward the Norwegian Sea.
Overall, winds and waves remain favorable for offshore operations. However, as low-pressure systems pass near the United Kingdom, periods of enhanced southwesterly flow will bring increasing winds and waves over the southern North Sea from Friday onward. At times, winds may rise to 20–25 knots, with waves reaching 2–2.5 meters (see Figure 1). In addition, a local increase in waves up to 4 meters may be expected along the southern/southwestern Norwegian coast, as the low-pressure system moves northeast toward the Norwegian Sea.
Thus, there is a risk of thunderstorms across the entire North Sea starting Wednesday. In addition, occasional increases in wind and wave activity are expected over the southern North Sea from Friday onward, with local increases along the southern/southwestern Norwegian coast.
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