Weekly Weather Update

Welcome to the Weekly Weather Update  – your guide to the world’s oceans and seas. Each week, we highlight key marine weather patterns and analyse unusual or significant weather events. From calm spells under high pressure to tropical cyclones forming in equatorial waters, and from jet streams steering oceanic storms to anomalies in sea-surface temperature that shape global climate patterns. Here’s what this week’s weather has in store. 

Windy week over the North Sea

This week, the synoptics won’t change that much over the North Sea with low pressure generally over northern Atlantic and high pressure lingering over southern Europe. In between a fairly strong south to southwesterly airflow is maintained in which frontal troughs are alternated by mobile ridges. Configurations like this are generally reluctant to change. So this week will overall turn out to be a windy one, with highest windspeeds over the northern North Sea and the soothing effects of the southern European high occasionally reaching into the southern parts of the North Sea.

Especially later on Tuesday and Wednesday an unsettled phase is expected over the northern North Sea with gales or strong gales, 8 or 9 Bft, on the flank of a deep low grazing the UK on its way towards the Norwegian Sea. Hs will peak at 5.0 to 7.0 meters in the high north by then, while in the far south Hs will remain below 2.5 meters. A break in this windy and wavy pattern occurs over most of the North Sea on Thursday as a ridge crosses the area. Near the ridge Hs lowers to 1.5-3.0 meters later in the day, possibly lasting well into Friday, before waves will increase once again in the north. This time to around 3.5-4.0 meters in the course of Friday. Also during the weekend we don’t expect much change. Hence, southwesterlies will remain predominant, occasionally strengthening significantly.

Rather calm tropics

As the southern hemisphere summer is in full swing, the ITCZ has moved south as well. Currently this undulating belt of thunderstorms and converging trade winds is positioned close to the equator. This position limits the development of tropical storms like Hurricanes and Typhoons as the Coriolis force is largely absent.

This force only acts upon air particles further north and south of the equator and becomes significant over 5 to 10° north or south. Without this force, deflecting winds are absent; meaning that air moves towards pressure perturbations in a straight-lined manner and without too much delay. Hence, a newly formed tropical low will dissipate rather quickly before it is even fully developed. 

For this week we therefore don’t expect significant tropical activity, besides the common showers and thunderstorms. Once the ITCZ makes its way further south this risk will inevitably increase.

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