After weeks of high pressure domination, conditions will gradually change this week. Strong northerlies will affect much of the North Sea as low pressure develops over southern Scandinavia. During the weekend, Atlantic low pressure may finally be able to enter the North Sea.
High pressure over Iceland weakens the coming days, while gradually moving northeast into the Norwegian Sea. Meanwhile, a lee trough develops over southern Norway today, strengthening further into low pressure. This low pressure is expected to linger over southern Scandinavia until the end of the week, moving northwest towards the Norwegian Sea coming weekend. A strong northerly flow will develop and is expected to dominate much of the North Sea this week, dissipating again on Saturday.
Winds will increase first over the northern North Sea, just west of southern Norway, reaching 25 – 35 knots on Wednesday through Friday. This wind field will extend into the shipping areas Fisher and German Bight late Wednesday and early Thursday, reaching 25 – 35 knots as well. Areas closer to the UK, like Forties, Dogger and Humber, will see an overall 15 – 25 knots on Thursday and Friday. Highest winds are expected in the eastern parts of these areas, closer to Norway. The significant wave height is expected to exceed 4 meters just southwest of Norway from tonight onwards, extending into Fisher and the northern German Bight in the night to Thursday. Waves up to 3 meters will reach just north of the Netherlands on Thursday, while the eastern part of Viking and Forties will continue to see waves around 4 meters until the end of Friday.
On Saturday, a mobile ridge is expected to cross the North Sea, easing down the wind and wave conditions. By then, Atlantic low pressure settles just south of Iceland, with associated frontal troughs entering the North Sea shortly after. Low pressure is expected to continue to affect the North Sea afterwards, however there is still a lot of uncertainty about the exact positioning of this low pressure.
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