After a week that, given the influence by low pressure, has still seen relatively favourable circumstances over the North Sea, the following week is expected to be largely dominated by low pressure as well. Secondary lows and frontal troughs associated with a low pressure area between the United Kingdom and Iceland affect the North Sea at first. By Friday and Saturday, high pressure moves to central Europe, improving conditions in the southern and central North Sea. Low pressure is expected to gain more influence again after the weekend.
At the moment, low pressure lingers between the United Kingdom and Iceland, being positioned near the Faroe Islands. The low moves to Iceland, where it remains fairly stationary throughout the week. This results in a predominantly southerly flow over the area, with a secondary low and frontal troughs moving northeastward over the North Sea during the coming days, affecting the North Sea regularly. The secondary low tracks northward over the North Sea on Wednesday and Thursday, leading to the most unsettled conditions of the week. During these days, wind speeds exceed 30 kts and significant wave heights surpass 4 meters in large parts of the North Sea (Figure 1).
In the meantime, the Azores High is extending a ridge over the Iberian Peninsula, moving northward over the Bay of Biscay on Thursday. A secondary high develops there by then, moving NNE over France to the Baltic Sea during the weekend. An associated weak ridge extends over the eastern North Sea during these days. However, with low pressure persisting near Iceland still, the pressure gradient remains fairly high over the northern North Sea, resulting in wind speeds up to 30 kts and wave heights reaching up to 4 meters in these areas. Calmer conditions are found over the central and southern North Sea by then, where waves stay below 2 meters and wind speeds below 20 kts.
After the weekend, the uncertainty increases, as weather models start to diverge. Some models foresee a renewed influence of the aforementioned low pressure area, whereas other models predict that a new secondary low will affect the North Sea by then. At this stage, the most unsettled conditions for early next week are expected, again, over the northern North Sea. As this period is still far ahead and the uncertainty is large, we strongly encourage you to stay updated on the latest weather developments by consulting the most recent weather reports.
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