North Sea weather briefing week 14: Calm and workable conditions, while a low looms later

Figure 1: Isobars (black lines) and wind direction and wind speed in kts on Wednesday at 18 UTC.

Figure 2: Significant wave height and direction on Wednesday at 18 UTC.

On Thursday, the area with higher wind and waves will propagate more towards the south. Waves will increase to 3.0 meters in Viking and the northern part of Forties. The exact development of the low-pressure area that will develop in the night to Thursday is uncertain. In the GFS scenario, winds will increase to 30 kts in the Central North Sea and waves can grow up to 2.5 – 3.0 meters behind the trough (please see Figure 3 and 4). In the ECMWF scenario, the low will track over the most southern parts of the North Sea and will the pressure in the core will be higher. Therefore, winds and waves will not increase as much as in the GFS scenario. Winds will increase to 20 kts and waves will hardly grow above 1.0 meter.

Since the ECMWF scenario is supported by other models as well, we think this scenario is more likely to occur. But bear in mind that the confidence is rather low, so please take this advice with caution.

On Friday, the low pressure will move away to the southeast while filling. Winds will decrease again and waves will generally not be higher than 1.5 meter. Only in the most northerly part of the North Sea, waves can grow until 2.5 meter. During the weekend, waves will grow even less and will not exceed 1.0 meter in the majority of the North Sea area.

Figure 3: Isobars (black lines) and wind direction and wind speed in kts on Friday at 00 UTC.

Figure 4: Significant wave height and direction on Friday at 00 UTC.

Conclusion

High pressure is located over Scandinavia, with a ridge stretching over the North Sea for the majority of this week. The high pressure influence is alternated with a situation where a frontal trough will spawn a separate low in the night to Thursday. The different weather models show a different track and development of the system.

We follow the ECMWF scenario in which the low-pressure area tracks over the Southern North Sea with a less pronounced wind peak than in the scenario where the low pressure area tracks over the Central North Sea. Bear in mind that the uncertainty is quite high. Please check you daily forecasts as confidence will grows approaching the event 

Afterwards, high pressure regains influence over the area and calm conditions occur. Overall, this week is characterized by rather calm and stable weather, with workable conditions.

Weekly weather briefing