After a week that has largely been characterised by low pressure conditions, the upcoming week is one with two different phases. Initially, calm and quiet weather is expected over the North Sea, but on Friday and Saturday low pressure systems will affect the area, leading to unsettled situations over large parts of the region. Conditions are projected to improve again at the start of next week.
Currently, a minor low pressure area is situated over the North Sea, moving northeastward over Denmark and southern Sweden into the Baltic Sea by tonight. A high pressure area develops over the English Channel in the meantime, that moves NE into the North Sea tomorrow and shifts into the Norwegian Sea in the night to Thursday. An associated ridge will linger over the region for the remainder of Thursday, maintaining calm conditions. Under this ridge, wind speeds are generally expected to remain below 10 kts and significant wave heights (Hs) below 1m until Thursday evening, providing a good window for offshore operations in the southern/eastern parts of the North Sea. The weather over the western/northern parts of the North Sea is expected to be somewhat unsettled with winds up to 20-25 knots and waves up to 3m locally.
From Friday onwards however, the weather is expected to become increasingly unsettled. By then, the high pressure area has moved into Scandinavia, while Atlantic low pressure settles just E of Ireland. This leads to an increased pressure gradient over the North Sea. As a consequence, winds will strengthen, particularly in the northwestern half of the North Sea, where wind speeds may reach up to 30kts. Wave heights are expected to increase accordingly, with projected values for Hs up to 3m in these areas. On Saturday, a secondary low is expected to track northward over the United Kingdom, leading to renewed wind and wave peaks, mostly over the eastern half of the North Sea in this case (Figure 1). During this period, significant wave heights of 3.5 m and wind speeds reaching 30 kts will not be uncommon. As the exact track and formation of this low remains uncertain, the confidence for Saturday remains rather low at the moment. Together with low confidence, there is also risk of thunderstorms across the North Sea on the passing frontal troughs.
As the low moves NW towards Iceland, a new ridge of high pressure is forecast across the North Sea from Sunday onwards. An Atlantic high pressure system is expected to build a ridge over the English Channel into the North Sea by then, bringing calmer conditions back to the region. Current projections indicate that the Atlantic high moves NE into the North Sea later next week, providing a stable weather outlook for next week. As this period is still far ahead, and given the high uncertainty in current model projections for Saturday, we recommend consulting the latest weather reports to remain updated about the latest weather developments.
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