Welcome to the Weekly Weather Update – your guide to the world’s oceans and seas. Each week, we highlight key marine weather patterns and analyse unusual or significant weather events. From calm spells under high pressure to tropical cyclones forming in equatorial waters, and from jet streams steering oceanic storms to anomalies in sea-surface temperature that shape global climate patterns. Here’s what this week’s weather has in store.
Autumn is in full swing over the North Sea
Low pressure after low pressure...it looks like autumn has found its way to the North Sea this week. This results in unsettled conditions, with rain showers, strong winds, and high waves from time to time.
Low pressure lingers just north of Scotland today. It is expected to move slightly towards the Shetlands on Wednesday, before moving southwards on Thursday and Friday while weakening over the Irish Sea. An associated deep trough moves from the German Bight into Norway today. Further low pressure develops well west of Ireland and west of Brittany on Wednesday, merging during the night to Thursday as it moves east over the English Channel. On Thursday, it is then expected to move further northeast towards Denmark, remaining fairly stationary over southern Scandinavia during Friday and Saturday. Strong high pressure settles over the Atlantic by then, resulting in a strong northerly flow over the entire North Sea.
On the flanks of the deep trough over the North Sea today, winds are strong along the coasts of the Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, and southern Norway. Over the central parts of the North Sea, winds will remain mostly moderate to locally fresh. The significant wave height generally remains between 1.0 and 2.0 meters, except over the northern North Sea where it is still around 3.0 meters at first.
On Wednesday, as this trough moves further northeast, fresh to strong winds affect the central part of the North Sea as well, with waves increasing to just over 2.0 meters. Meanwhile, the worst conditions are present just west of Schotland and the Shetlands, with gale- to storm-force winds and waves reaching up to 6 - 10 meters. The UK acts as a barrier, preventing the severe conditions from spreading into the North Sea.
Late Wednesday, conditions ease temporarily as a weak ridge passes the North Sea. Conditions deteriorate again as a secondary low-pressure area moves from the English Channel towards Denmark on Thursday. On the northwestern flank of this low pressure, winds will increase to near-gale or gale force in general. Locally, strong gale-force winds are possible over the German Bight. Significant wave heights are expected to reach up to 3.0 to 5.0 meters. The exact position of low pressure is not entirely certain, but the shipping areas Fisher, German Bight, and eastern parts of Dogger and Humber are expected to experience the worst conditions.
On Friday and Saturday, conditions worsen steadily over the entire North Sea as low pressure settles over southern Scandinavia and strong high pressure develops over the Atlantic. The northerly flow reaches near-gale to locally strong gale force. Roughly north of 54°N, waves over the southern North Sea are expected to reach 4.0 – 6.0 meters on Saturday. Waves over the central North Sea may reach up to 6.0 – 8.0 meters, while they could slightly exceed 8.0 meters over the northern North Sea (Figure 1).
Conclusion for the North Sea
Unsettled conditions lie ahead as several low-pressure areas are expected to affect the North Sea. During the first few days, the UK shelters the North Sea from the worst conditions. Towards and during the weekend, marine operations are expected to be heavily impacted.
Improving conditions in the South China Sea
Moving around the world, we first arrive in the South China Sea, where Tropical Storm Fengshen is located just southeast of Hainan on Tuesday, with winds reaching up to 45 knots. The storm is moving southwest and strengthening, reaching 50 knots and briefly upgrading to a severe tropical storm by the end of Tuesday. On Wednesday, the system begins to weaken and will continue to do so in the following days. As it approaches Vietnam and moves inland, it is expected to weaken further into a tropical depression with winds of 20–30 knots by Thursday (Figure 2).
Figure 2: Track and development of the tropical storm Fengshen.
Indian Ocean
This week, the Indian Ocean also has an interesting development. Tropical Cyclone Chenge, with winds reaching up to 60 knots, is located northeast of Madagascar on Tuesday and initially moves southwest. By Thursday, the cyclone begins to turn slightly northwest, passing south of the Seychelles on Friday while gradually weakening. By that time, wind speeds have decreased to around 40 knots. Chenge then continues northwest and is expected to weaken further into a tropical depression by the end of the weekend, with winds of up to 30 knots (Figure 3).
Figure 3: Track and development of the tropical storm Chenge.
Caribbean Sea
In the Caribbean Sea, a tropical depression (98AL) is currently developing. The system is strengthening and is expected to upgrade to a tropical cyclone within the next seven days, with a high likelihood of this occurring in the next 48 hours. The cyclone is forecast to move slowly westward while continuing to intensify (Figure 4).
Figure 4. Tropical depression in the Caribbean Sea
Let's sum it up
This week, the North Sea remains unsettled, with periods of stormy weather. Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Fengshen in the South China Sea is currently strengthening but is expected to weaken again from Thursday onward. In the Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Chenge, located northeast of Madagascar, is moving southwest before turning northwest on Friday while gradually weakening. Meanwhile, in the Caribbean Sea, Tropical Depression 98AL is worth monitoring closely, as it is expected to strengthen into a tropical cyclone in the coming days.
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